In a historic vote on Dec. 14, South Korea's National Assembly passed the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol, marking a seismic moment in the country's political history. While the passage indicates that some ruling People Power Party members joined the opposition, the decision is widely seen as a condemnation of Yoon's controversial actions surrounding the Dec. 3 martial law declaration, not an endorsement of the opposition, according to experts and observers.

To meet the two-thirds majority threshold of 200 votes in the 300-seat National Assembly, eight lawmakers from the 108-seat People Power Party were needed to side with the opposition. The impeachment motion was passed with 204 votes in favor, indicating that 12 of the ruling party lawmakers likely supported it.

Accountability, not alliance

However, political analysts emphasize that these votes do not endorse the opposition. “This is not about supporting the Democratic Party of Korea. It is about holding the president accountable for his actions, which was widely viewed as a breach of constitutional governance,” said Kim Man-heum, the former chief of the National Assembly Research Service.

Ruling party lawmakers who supported the impeachment motion have likely done so as an act of responsibility, amid growing public outrage over the president’s martial law imposition, he added.

A candid exchange between two People Power Party lawmakers underscored that the impeachment is a bipartisan judgment on Yoon's actions rather than a signal of political unity between rival factions.

“This is not about siding with the opposition; it’s about addressing wrongdoing,” said Rep. Kim Sang-wook during a one-person protest advocating for Yoon's impeachment, addressing senior lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun. Kim was one of only three lawmakers from the ruling party to have participated in the first impeachment motion vote on Dec. 7.

Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun argued that the conservative president's impeachment could lead to the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea seizing power through an earlier than expected presidential election.

Rep. Kim responded that it is up to the people to decide who they want to be president and that he also does not favor Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main opposition. "But if we take away the people's right to choose just because we don't think Lee Jae-myung is suitable to be president, this threatens the constitutional order in some way too," he added.

Early presidential race?

The impeachment paves the way for Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to assume interim presidential powers while the Constitutional Court deliberates on Yoon’s removal. Waiting for the court's decision on the impeachment, South Korea's political landscape is reshaping into a mode of an early presidential election to take place in 2025.

While the impeachment vote is undoubtedly a victory for the Democratic Party, solidifying its role as the primary opposition force, experts caution against interpreting the impeachment as a wholesale shift in voter allegiance.

“This was a vote against Yoon, not a vote for the Democratic Party,” said expert Kim Man-heum. “The opposition will need to work hard to maintain the public’s trust as the political dynamics evolve.”

While Democratic Party leader Lee has positioned himself as the potential front-runner for the next presidential race, his campaign is clouded by ongoing legal issues. Although recently acquitted of some charges, Lee still faces hurdles, including a pending conviction related to election law violations. These legal risks could jeopardize his standing, even as he works to consolidate support by focusing on economic issues and engaging with key stakeholders across the political and business spectrum.

For Han Dong-hoon, the impeachment of Yoon presents a dual-edged sword. While distancing himself from Yoon’s controversial decisions may bolster his credibility, he must also navigate internal party divisions between the pro-Yoon and pro-Han factions. Han’s ability to unify the fractured ruling party will be critical in securing public trust. Additionally, as leader of the ruling party Han may face opposition-led scrutiny over his role in the martial law fallout.