Bumpy road ahead for Korean economy
Political tumult, slowing growth, US tariff threats “triple whammy” hit Asia’s fourth-largest economy
By Park Han-na
Published : Dec. 8, 2024 - 15:46
As the fate of embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol is likely to stay in limbo for longer than expected, concerns are mounting over pending economic measures that need to be addressed to rev up the country’s slowing growth.
After a failed parliamentary vote on his impeachment Saturday, Han Dong-hoon, leader of the ruling People Power Party, stressed Sunday that he would push for the president’s resignation. The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon to immediately step down, threatening to submit motions to unseat him every week.
Pending economic issues standing at a critical juncture have been pushed aside, including a stalled talk on 677 trillion won ($475.4 billion) worth of the 2025 state budget plan and the upcoming government’s announcement of economic policy directions that would be a guideline for Korean industries regarding how to ride out the rapidly changing global economic environment next year.
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on Sunday pleaded for swift handling of the budget proposal while vowing to run an emergency system to monitor financial and currency markets closely.
“For national affairs to operate normally even in times of emergency, the passage of the budget plan submitted by the government and its accompanying bills is more necessary than anything else,” he said.
“Only when the budget is finalized as soon as possible and each ministry prepares for execution on time can the economy and people’s livelihoods recover in a timely manner during these difficult times.”
Following a meeting with ministers earlier in the day, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok also issued a separate statement reaffirming that "South Korea's economic system is solid, with the government’s contingency measures functioning effectively."
"The top priority is external creditworthiness," Choi stressed, adding that the government plans to engage directly with international credit rating agencies, dispatch financial cooperation delegations to key global organizations and countries and launch briefings for overseas investors.
Stock and foreign exchange markets, forward-looking barometers of economic conditions, have already reeled from the shock last week.
Using proper policy tools to stabilize the financial market will be a crucial task to prevent the volatility from spreading to the real economy, given the country's existing exposure to downward pressure like the strong dollar.
“Breaking a negative cycle is a key issue. The negative impact (from the political unrest) on the financial market could lead to consumption contraction and delay in investment and then have a ripple effect on the real economy,” Lee So-ra, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.
Market onlookers predicted that the country’s equity market would turn downwards throughout the end of the year as the political uncertainty is adding pressure to the market, which is already stressed by the faltering competitiveness of the country’s key export industries such as semiconductors and secondary batteries, and US President-elect Donald Trump's hardline tariff policy.
On Friday, the benchmark Kospi shed 1.78 percent to go below its psychologically important 2,400 mark during intraday trading, while the secondary Kosdaq hit the lowest level in more than four years before paring losses.
Further depreciation of the Korean currency is expected but within a limited range.
Immediately after Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday, the Korean won’s value touched a two-year low by hitting 1,430 won against the greenback.
“The Korean won will stay at a low level and display high volatility until the ease of political uncertainties,” said Lee Joo-won, an analyst at Daishin Securities.
The dim prospect for next year's exports is another factor weighing down the economy.
Bank of Korea Gov. Rhee Chang-yong singled out US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff hike threat and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese exporters as reasons for the central bank's decision to lower its export projection for next year. The central bank also lowered the nation’s growth outlook to 2.2 percent for this year and 1.9 percent for next year.
Gloomy projections from global economic institutions and investment banks suggest that a 1 percent economic growth rate could be the new normal for Korea.
On Friday, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic and Research Office predicted that the Korean economy would grow 1.9 percent next year. The estimate didn’t factor in variables involving the impeachment process and martial law declaration this week.
Major investment banks have been lowering their projections. Citigroup has slashed its GDP growth estimate for Korea for 2025 from 1.8 percent to 1.6 percent. UBS, Nomura and JP Morgan cut their forecasts to 1.9 percent, 1.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.