The opposition’s move to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol has gained momentum, since his surprise declaration of martial law late Tuesday. The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea has accused him of committing a crime similar to treason or insurrection, which is grounds for impeachment. The Constitution protects presidents from civil lawsuits and criminal charges unless they are convicted of treason.

Here are the three possible scenarios that could unfold following the opposition-led Assembly’s vote for an impeachment motion against Yoon scheduled for 7 p.m. on Saturday.

1. If the Assembly passes the impeachment motion

A motion to impeach the president requires at least 200 or two-thirds of the 300-member Assembly to vote in favor of it to be forwarded to the Constitutional Court, which has the authority to finalize the proposal. The bar is higher compared with the minimum requirement for impeachment motions against other public officials, which is the simple majority.

The opposition parties, including the main opposition Democratic Party, currently hold a combined 192 seats in the Assembly, having secured this majority through the April 10 general election. At least eight lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party would have to vote in favor of the motion for it to pass.

If the motion passes, Yoon would be immediately stripped of his constitutional powers and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo would serve as the country’s leader in an acting capacity for the time being.

The Constitutional Court would then launch a trial to decide whether they would uphold the National Assembly’s decision. For the court to uphold the impeachment, six out of its nine judges would need to vote in favor of the motion. At the moment, there are only six justices as the assembly has yet to elect the successors to replace three recently retired justices.

Acting Constitutional Court President Moon Hyung-bae told reporters on Thursday that the trial can be carried out with six justices, but "further discussions are required" on whether the court can hand down a ruling under the current state.

A presidential election would take place within 60 days if the court decides to impeach Yoon.

Yoon’s impeachment would be the worst-case scenario for the conservative bloc as it would lead to main opposition leader Rep. Lee Jae-myung to run for president immediately, according to political commentator Park Sang-byeong.

“If Yoon is impeached, it would allow Lee to run for president right away, as top court rulings for the five cases he is involved in will take some time to be handed down. It would allow him to run for president in an election within 60 days of Yoon’s impeachment,” Park said via phone.

This would be a scenario that People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon would prefer to avoid at the moment, with a recent survey showing that voters’ support for Lee as the next presidential candidate stands at 41.3 percent, while for Han it is at 19.3 percent, Park explained.

It is unknown at the moment how many ruling party lawmakers will vote in favor of the motion to impeach Yoon. However, Han reiterated the party’s stance on Thursday “to make efforts to block the passage of the impeachment motion against President Yoon” in the upcoming plenary session. At the same time, he stressed that the president must leave the conservative ruling party.

2. If the motion fails to pass in the Assembly

If the motion fails to pass in the Assembly and is scrapped, the Democratic Party is likely to submit a second impeachment bill, Park said. And this is likely to launch another painful process for Yoon, as the main opposition could push through multiple bills targeting Yoon, first lady Kim Keon Hee and his aides simultaneously.

Another expert pointed out that Yoon could just sit back and wait as his administration enters a “vegetative state,“ so that Lee can‘t run for president immediately, Lee Jun-han, professor of political science and diplomacy at Incheon National University, said.

“Yoon is likely to sit back and anticipate Lee to be convicted in the ongoing court battles, but his administration wouldn‘t be able to avoid entering a vegetative state,” according to Lee.

3. If Yoon resigns

Yoon’s resignation could paint the rosiest future for the ruling bloc, according to Park.

The law states that if a president resigns, a new election will take place within 60 days as well. This would not only give leverage to Lee Jae-myung, but also serve as an opportunity for the ruling conservative bloc to regain voters‘ trust, the commentator said.

“Resignation could be the best case scenario for Yoon -- if Yoon admits his guilt and decides to step down, this could help the People Power Party to spin a more positive narrative around his decree of martial law. This would help the party regain the trust of the people,“ Park said.

4. Constitutional reform for 4-year presidency

Opposition has been consistently proposing the idea of a constitutional amendment to shorten the presidential term limit. The idea centers around allowing presidents to serve a second term, while shortening the length of a single term from five to four years. That means the maximum time someone could be president would be eight years.

If the reform is carried out, then Yoon's current presidency which is set to end May 2027 would end May 2026. He would have to run for presidency in a reelection, unlike the current law, which bans them from doing so after serving their five-year term.

Five People Power Party lawmakers, who are viewed as a "pro-Han" faction within the ruling bloc, called for such constitutional reform on Thursday. They mentioned that the president has "lost trust and authority among the people through the latest decree of martial law," and proposed it as a solution for the problem, in a joint statement released during a press conference held at the Assembly on Thursday.