The Korea Herald

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Will Korea’s decision to lift restrictions ahead of winter backfire?

By Kim Arin

Published : Nov. 3, 2020 - 18:12

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Temperatures have dropped to below zero degrees Celsius in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday morning. (Yonhap) Temperatures have dropped to below zero degrees Celsius in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday morning. (Yonhap)

South Korea’s latest coronavirus strategy is intended to make social distancing more bearable while simultaneously saving the economy, public health authorities said Sunday.

The new social distancing guidance unveiled by the Ministry of Health and Welfare over the weekend allows Korea to stay open with most restrictions lifted even for high-risk businesses -- unless worse comes to worst and there takes place what officials deem a nationwide spread.

The bar for elevating the social distancing tier is higher and the rules for each tier softened. The strictest lockdown-like measures are reserved for when over 800 to 1,000 cases occur a day for about a week.

But experts warn the coming months of the pandemic could be trickier than the last nine months as winter approaches. The coronavirus restrictions need to be maintained, if not tightened, to plan for winter without a vaccine, they argue.

Korea confirmed 75 more positive cases on Monday, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s daily updates, bringing the cumulative number of official cases to 26,807.

While the daily case count has hovered above 100 -- sometimes falling into the double-digits -- for the past month, other metrics are not too auspicious.

Contact tracing has failed for more than 20 percent of recently diagnosed cases, the KDCA’s situation report shows. For the latter half of October, only around 9,400 tests were performed per day on average.

After Korea moved on to the least intensive social distancing tier, the ministry said last week that travel, shopping, dining and other vouchers will be issued to people in a bid to boost spending. In July, the government set aside some 190 billion won ($167 million) in the budget for the vouchers.

The various promotions coupled with reduced social distancing “might have come at a wrong time,” according to pulmonologist Dr. Chun Eun-mi of western Seoul’s Ewha Womans University Medical Center.

“Now should be the time for increased social distancing, to prepare for colder months when the respiratory viruses tend to thrive,” she said. “More restrictions are needed through the winter, and these economy boosters can be saved for later in the spring when the weather starts to warm.”

Besides, there could be more progress on coronavirus treatment by early next year, she added.

Chun warned that Korea may be setting itself up for another bed shortage crisis by not only loosening controls, but also encouraging risky activities at the brink of winter.

“Winter -- even moderately cold winter -- is already a challenging season for health care services due to higher incidence of illnesses. Hospitals will have less flexibility to manage the rise in demand,” she said.

Another pulmonologist, Dr. Jung Ki-suck, who headed the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2016-17, said handing out vouchers “in essence counters coronavirus control.”

“The government is putting the economy first with the new guidance, and I agree with the general sentiment,” he said. “But things can quickly spiral out of control as the country heads into an untested, perilous phase of a coronavirus winter.”

By Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)