South Korea’s capital is expected to see a decline in its current 10 million population to about 9.16 million by 2040, with the median age jumping to 52, showed research by a state-run institute.

The report by Byeon Mi-ri, chief of the Global Future Research Center under the Seoul Institute, also showed that households consisting of one or two people will account for 62 percent of Seoul’s 4.1 million total households by then. 

Byeon attributed the decrease in population to high living costs, along with the general trend that involves gradually less people living in the country’s most populous city.

As of 2016, about 10.26 million people live in Seoul. But the figure has consistently declined since topping 11 million in 1992.



Most of those who left the city are expected to settle down in the so-called capital region of Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, Byeon noted.

During the time, Seoul is likely to see a gradual decrease in the working age population (15-64), coupled with a continued increase in the senior population made up of those 65 and over.

The 15-64 group will drop from 7.5 million to 5.45 million, along with the major consumer group (45-49) shrinking from 800,000 to 642,000. This will likely fuel the economic slump, the report noted.

The birth rate is also set to decrease, with women of childbearing age falling to 960,000 from the current 1.5 million. But the average life expectancy will be 85.1 for men and 90.7 for women.

The average life expectancy for those living in Seoul as of 2014, according to state-run Seoul Statistics, was tallied at 78.99 for men and 85.48 for women.

Between the rising life expectancy and falling birth rate, the median age will be set at 52 instead of the current 39.

Byeon’s report said the change in demographic will likely spur changes in the lifestyles of Seoulites, with “Social Tribe,” “Nomadingle,” “Me Gray Senior” and “Passive Silver” being the key words of 2040 Seoul.

“Social Tribe” refers to those who seek to solve their problems by actively sharing information within the online community via social networking service. “Nomadingle” -- a combination of nomad and single -- are those not constrained by social norms.

“Me Gray Senior” refers to the wealthy aged population who actively partakes in social activities, with the flip side of this being the “Passive Silver” group who commit their lives to supporting their family and end up with limited financial means and roles within society.

The report was based on data from Statistics Korea and the Seoul Metropolitan Government.

It is to be presented at the institute’s seminar on the theme of the city’s future, to be held Tuesday at the Seoul City Hall.


By Yoon Min-sik
(minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)